Huge asteroid on possible collision course with Earth

otcclass2010
otcclass2010: A rather large asteroid is on a possible collision course with the Earth, space scientists have revealed. But there is no need to panic – even if an impact date is confirmed, it is not likely to be for 172 years.

An international team, including NASA experts, say in new research that the space rock has a one-in-a-thousand chance of an impact.

They may sound like high odds, but they are enough to mean the threat from the 560-meter (612-yard) wide asteroid will have to be taken seriously.

If such a cosmic missile hit land, it would blast a crater several miles wide – enough to devastate a city and wreak destruction for hundreds of miles around.

The good news is the evidence suggests that if there is an impact then it is most likely to happen in 2182. That is clearly a long way of and provides time to work out strategies to deal with the threat.

The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is dubbed 1999 RQ36. The scientists had labelled it a “potentially hazardous asteroid” of the Apollo group because its orbit brings it close to Earth. But it was then considered a much lower risk.

Now scientists from Spain, Italy and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California have used computer models to produce a more accurate forecast of its path. Their results are published in the science journal Icarus.

The asteroid’s orbit has been fairly well known thanks to 290 visual observations and 13 measurements using radar, say the scientists. It takes around 14 months to go round the Sun. However, a disturbance called the Yarkovsky effect, caused by the force of sunlight on smaller bodies, introduces a significant “orbital uncertainty”.

Maria Eugenia Sansaturio, of Valladolid University, Spain, said: “The total impact probability of asteroid 1999 RQ36 can be estimated at 0.00092 – approximately one-in-a-thousand chance – but what is most surprising is that over half of this chance (0.00054) corresponds to 2182.”

Scientists had previously suggested sending a space mission called OSIRIS-REx (corr) to collect samples of the cosmic missile. Bill Cutlip of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre in Greenbelt, Maryland, said: “This asteroid is a time capsule from before the birth of our solar system. You can’t underestimate the value of a pristine sample.”

Scientists have reduced the threat from another 300-meter wide space rock called Apophis which is due to make two close approaches to Earth within the next 30 years.

The first, on Friday the 13th of April, 2029, is virtually certain to miss us though it will come closer than TV and other geostationary satellites, at a distance of only 18,300 miles. But uncertainty over the effect of that close encounter meant that astronomers could not rule out the chance of an impact seven years later in 2036.

Now, however, the chance of a catastrophic collision on 13 April of that year have dropped from one-in-45,000 to an even more reassuring one-in-250,000.

• Discover space for yourself and do fun science with a telescope. Here is Skymania’s advice on how to choose a telescope. We also have a guide to the different types of telescope available. Check out our monthly sky guide too!
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DillyBear
DillyBear: Arent there always Asteroids on a collision course, I guess one will hit us eventually.
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Innumberable of them have hit Earth in the past, and will in the future. A glace at the moon makes that pretty clear. But keep in mind the time scale involved. The time of civilization is but the comparitive blink of an eye when you consider the scale.
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DIEcomputerDIE
DIEcomputerDIE: So, my idea for a house built of straw is a bad idea..?
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Actually, straw has been used successfully for the building materials in modern houses. When used properly, it has excellent insulating qualities.

Cheap too.
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sharingan333
sharingan333: just Armageddon
no worried we won't live that long.
for WINNERS
the technology will prove itself hero to stop the disaster,enough time to save living
for LOSERS
earth is always chosen lucky from bigbang to now so everything will be fine.
if something terrible happen then it would be for a new beginning and for something good like collision for creation of moon or extinction of dinos.
be prepared be safe
note-dont take it seriously lol
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: The only part of that post that I found comprehensible was the last line. I'll take that advice, and not take that seriously.
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XFixYourBrainX
XFixYourBrainX: This sounds fake
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davidk14
davidk14: According to historical impact records, earth is overdue for a large impact.
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XFixYourBrainX
XFixYourBrainX: Doesnt mean it will happen.
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davidk14
davidk14: Doesn't mean that it won't.
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XFixYourBrainX
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coolhell
coolhell: So, I suggest that we all give in to un-natural debauchery and dissolutenes, with the unknown persons from internet.
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XFixYourBrainX
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Pokerman, did you ever look at pictures of the Moon? See all of those craters? Those are from impacts. Earth is covered with those too, but you can't see them as well because Earth is mostly covered with water. Also Earth has erosion caused by wind and rain that, over time, washes away much of the easily viewed evidence of impacts. On the Moon, with its having vaccum rather than atmosphere, the craters remain undisturbed and easily visible.

So if you think "this sounds fake," look at those pictures of the Moon.

Better yet, go to this website:

http://geology.com/meteor-impact-craters.shtml

You can easily examine the "fifty most obvious asteroid impact sites" on Earth.

As David states, statistically, Earth is overdue for a big one. But I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Again, consider the time scales involved. The last really big one was 65 million years ago. If you consider the entire history of civilization to be 20 thousand years old, there have been roughly 3250 "civilization periods" since that last big one.
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XFixYourBrainX
XFixYourBrainX: What I was referring to was that this could be one of those make up stories of omg!!! the world will end because of a huge asteroid coming to earth.
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: From page one of this thread:


PokerMan:
This sounds fake

davidk14:
According to historical impact records, earth is overdue for a large impact.

PokerMan:
Doesnt mean it will happen.


A reasonable interpretation of that exchange is that you were skeptical of the idea of large objects hitting Earth. I don't see anything there alluding to "make up stories of omg!!! the world will end …”
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XFixYourBrainX
XFixYourBrainX: Ive seen stuff made up before thats why i say it.
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otcclass2010
otcclass2010: Yes... there are numerous asteroids that may come near our planet in the future and it is just a matter of time before one actually stikes us with the force of the one that is said to have wiped out the dinosaurs. We need to face this fact and prepare for it. There has be hardly anything that has been done to prepare the planet for an astroid attack of the maximum kind. As movies have foretold just striking it with a missile will only break it up and make many smaller killer rocks to fall. We need to find something that will help.
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coolhell
coolhell: "Give me a place to stand, and I shall move the world. "
Archimedes of Syracuse
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otcclass2010
otcclass2010: I have yet to see anyone do that.... but nice words...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: The only conceiveable means of defending against a "killer asteroid", within the technical means than exist, would be to deflect it enough so that it misses us, to give it a little nudge. I did a Google search on this subject, and without looking too deeply, it seems to me that the most plausible means of doing this would be to send a craft to the killer, armed with a number of nuclear bombs, and detonate them one at a time above the surface of the killer. The idea is to repeatedly apply nudges in the right place, with the killer far enough away, so that it would barely miss us.

It would be quite a technological feat, but we'd be pretty motivated, I would think. But it's also possible that regardless of our motivation, it just might not be possible. If the killer were too big, and/or not detected early enough, we might not have the means to do the job. And even if it was detected early, there might be a situation where a craft designed within our capabilities wouldn't be large enough to carry enough payload to do the job.

It would be a trade-off of factors. If you nudge the killer when it's far away, you don't need to nudge as hard. But the farther away you choose to make the nudge, the more difficult the job, and the smaller the nudging capability you'll have. And, of course, the bigger the killer is, the more it increases those difficulties.

So it's entirely possible that we might be faced with a circumstance where we could detect the killer with plenty of time, but find that there is simply not the technical means to nudge it hard enough to save ourselves.

And that killer is out there. Statistically, we can be quite sure it's there. But time is large, very large, and the likelihood of the killer getting us anytime soon is quite small ("soon" in a time scale relevant to human existence).

By the way, in 1903, in the entire state of Ohio (it's a big state, by the way), there existed only two automobiles. One day they both happened to be approaching the same country crossroad at the same time from different directions. They ran into each other.

(laughs)
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XFixYourBrainX
XFixYourBrainX: What your saying ott is plausible, but how much of the tiny left over particles of nuclear fall-out material would there be that would probably rain down on the earth afterwords.
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: That is one of the reasons that you would need multiple small nudges, rather than a big one. You'd create less debris that way. I really don't know what the effect of radioactive "fallout" reaching Earth would be, it would certainly be FAR, FAR less than we've exposed ourselves to already, and we seem to be getting by okay. There was quite a bit of above ground testing that happened during the late forties, all through the fifties and even into the sixties. And again, if you consider the physics involved, most of the debris would be flung in directions that don't intersect with us.

Regardless, it would have to be better than being hit by the Killer.
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hitsugaya252
hitsugaya252: yeah, lots of critical moments will interrupt in sustaining.
there are lots of asteroids and comets in our solar system that are potential threat to earth.
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