Mini Ice Age? (Page 31)

duncan124:

Well what about the nitric oxide??

duncan124:
Nitric Oxide in the atmosphere Alex.

Here is a page about it.

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/13393/2018/

I also remember that volcanoes create NO in the atmosphere and guess that clear blue skys lead to less NO compared to cloudy skys.

With the Solar Minimum causing more of less and so more blue skys there might be more changes in the air content but if these effect the thermosphere is anyones guess.

NoSuchName: I hit enter
every sentence
how can your puny
non enter
arguments
prevail????

duncan124:

Big Brother with the Solar Panel??

https://phys.org/news/2019-04-scientists-sun-weak-solar.html

Arguing with the Internet scammers is wrong but I disagree that the Solar Cycles are just going to go back the way they came.

So I at the moment expect a weaker year in Solar Activity terms but not a colder year exactly.

So this leaves the question So what did cause the Maunder and Dalton Minimums??

And I repeat the idea that this is a Minimum going into a warm period like the MWP or a return to the temps the ancient knew even.

duncan124:

Don't panic! " … there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

Earthsky looks at the predictions.

https://earthsky.org/space/solar-cycle-25-likely-weak-according-to-predictions

duncan124:

Not surprisingly Spaceweather has a big look at the predictions from their appointed panel of scientists.

"SOLAR MINIMUM, CONTINUED: The panel predicts a "fairly weak" Solar Cycle 25. What does that mean? Saying that a solar cycle is "weak" is a bit like saying hurricane season will be "weak." In other words, there may be fewer storms, but when a storm comes, you'd better batten down the hatches. "Weak" Solar Cycle 24 produced a number of intense X-class solar flares, strong geomagnetic storms, and even a Ground Level Event (GLE) when solar energetic particles reached Earth's surface. An equally "weak" Solar Cycle 25 could do the same 3 or 4 years hence" Spaceweather

http://www.spaceweather.com/ ..........11.04.19.

They still don't make the connection to less weather with less energy or the fact that things change a lot when they can.

duncan124:

Any doubt the Polar Vortex is connected to extreme cold weather in the North was dispelled this when it did another of its elongations and headed for its Final Warming this spring with the obvious results across America and Europe.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/an-incredible-arctic-outbreak-over-the-central-united-states-tonight-from-hot-day-and-severe-storms-back-to-winter-and-snow-in-only-12-hours-apr-10-11th/

duncan124:
Dooops!

"EXPERTS PREDICT A LONG, DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: An international panel of researchers led by NASA and NOAA has released a new prediction for the solar cycle: The current solar minimum is going to deepen, potentially reaching a century-class low in the next year or so. This will be followed by a new Solar Max in the years 2023-2026." spaceweather. 13.04.19

Not exactly what a quick read only a day ago would have lead you to believe.

So 24 is actually a deep Minimum. Huh??

And a New Max is in fact another "Little", this time a Little Max.

kittybobo34: Watching sun spots and predicting weather is much like trying to read the tea leaves in the bottom of your cup. The Sun is spinning, we are rotating.... it all gets blended or averaged. Now the size and shape of our orbit, planetary wobble, plus green house gasses make a huge difference

duncan124:

Well, its the Temperature they look for mostly if a Mini Ice Age is possibly starting.

duncan124:

" Watching sun spots and predicting weather is much like trying to read the tea leaves..."

There are more scientific views of these more complex activities. Sunspotwatch looks at the data gathered by scientific instruments.

http://sunspotwatch.com/

Notice the Solar X-ray flux.

I am sure there are better and more comprehensive computerised views but the weather is a political football.


Here is SWEs contentious report about extreme sea level reaction to the wandering split Polar Vortex and the resulting storms.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/a-violent-jet-stream-across-the-northwestern-atlantic-today-with-wind-speeds-around-400-km-h-at-300-mbar-feb-20th/

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-on-the-intense-bombogenesis-cyclone-in-the-north-atlantic-today-feb-20th/

duncan124:

SWE has released its summery of the 2018/19 winter, reporting that Europe was slightly warmer as a whole while the Balkans were cooler.

Its diagrams clearly has Portugal at the centre of the hot red weather even if the talk of Wildfires elsewhere means there is still some trepidation about what can be said.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/event-analysis/winter-2018-2019-analysis/


NOAA has recently released downloadable maps of the USA weather which show the averages there to be colder, and mostly colder with hotter states showing that the former USA is likely to suffer another cold winter in the Solar Minimum.

Is Europe heading for another MWP with warmer temps?? This could be a game changer.

duncan124:

More warm air from Africa set to come?

"Huge amounts of dust are advecting toward western Europe and the western Mediterranean this weekend, with parts of France, Spain and Italy expected to be the most impacted.

The event is caused by a broad cold core upper low pushing from Morocco into the Iberian peninsula and the western Mediterranean, Severe Weather Europe meteorologists said.

"It will persist there until Tuesday when a deep long wave trough coming in from the Atlantic pushes it further east into the northern Mediterranean." Thewatchers.

The Med seems to be see more changes than other areas. I think this, and the recent storms in the former USA, are both caused by the Polar Vortex winds as it unwinds in its Final Warming.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-on-the-massive-saharan-dust-event-for-western-central-and-southern-europe-from-uk-and-france-to-poland-and-greece/


Another long hot Summer anyone???

duncan124:
Can there be any doubt that the high winds that exist at 10hPa or above control the weather underneath them??

The end of the Polar Vortex left the cold Arctic winds to snake across the globe as the vortex grew in the south and with each twist around the planet cold weather effected those places they passed over.

SWE and Thewatchers followed the events;-

"Severe weather is affecting the Central United States since over the past couple of days, dumping heavy rain and hail, and producing damaging tornadoes. NWS warns severe weather will be possible across a broad area across the South and Central Plains, and lower and Middle Mississippi Valley today, May 1, 2019. Very large hail will be possible for a portion of west-central Texas, otherwise, damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain will be the primary threats. Late season Spring snow continues into Wednesday across the central Rockies and High Plains."SWE

https://watchers.news/2019/05/01/severe-weather-across-central-us-heavy-rain-hail-and-damaging-tornadoes/

https://watchers.news/2019/04/27/heavy-snow-blizzard-conditions-affecting-parts-of-united-states-challenging-records/

https://watchers.news/2019/04/28/chicago-record-snow-april-2019/

What ever the embarrassment to the former USA it seems clear that this year the weather there was driven top down so far,

duncan124:
"UPDATE on the historic Arctic front moving across Europe this weekend, May 3-6thBy SWE | Mesoscale Discussion | 03 May 2019

A very intense Arctic front is moving south across Europe this weekend and is expected to bring unusually low temperatures, snow and dangerous frost into some vulnerable areas on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Some areas could experience morning temperatures well below zero, which would be potentially devastating for vineyards and agriculture. Overall, very cold days are expected across much of our continent through mid next week, while it remains mild and warm across the Iberian peninsula." SWE

The blast from the Arctic is being brought to you by the collapsing Polar Vortex which has been turning over Scandinavia as it snakes around the world.