Mini Ice Age? (Page 44)

duncan124:

SWE reports signs of more activity at Taal.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/taal-volcano-update-big-eruption-likely-fa/

"Possible scenarios: It is possible that the activity will slowly reduce, and the volcano will go into a more quiet mode for a few weeks or months, before resuming again. Another possibility is that the activity will continue until a large explosive eruption happens. Taal is capable of large explosive eruptions. In the worst-case scenario, we get one shorter lasting, but large explosion, powerful enough to cover a large area of the country under ash, and releasing enough sulfur aerosols into the atmosphere, to actually cool the Earth for a year or two. Similar to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The more likely scenario is that Taal has a series of moderate explosive eruptions, lasting from one month to six months, but still covering a large area around the volcano with ash. "

I hazard a guess that the large cracks nearby are a sign of the volcano having found a balance without needing to explode.

duncan124:

The Polar Vortex has rapidly changed.

And now is reaching in to North America after first widening on its pacific side and then elongating within 24 hours to connect with winds blowing across Florida.

It looks like SWEs prediction of Arctic cold in the Former USA might come true.

Sir Loin: most unusual for rapid change to occur in the PV.... Interesting

Sir Loin: Cracks in the ground close to any active volcano are usually the result of earth movement; volcanic earth quakes, close to the surface. Not a good look for Philippines

duncan124:

Yes it is a bit strange and there seems to be two factors , one the PV can't cross the Former US all the time, and two the PV has a part which as the PV rotates seems to go all the way around until it reaches America again which it can not cross normally causing the PV to elongate.

Th PV now looks like it has a wobble caused by America.

Here is SWEs look at the extreme High over Europe??

Bringing clear skys and frosts right now but is it a start on a Warm Period of a Mini Ice Age??

duncan124:

Record snowfall in Newfoundland , as the Former USA also suffers some snow , points to a possible colder spring in the UK with possibly more snow, but more likely a lot more rain.

30" on Friday is widely reported.

The long series of heavy storms in the North Atlantic could indicate a strong weather event if it is not warded off by some other exceptional event, such as this high pressure.

duncan124:

The PV reached down to Florida briefly and is quickly rotating in its elongated form across the Atlantic.

The last time it seemed to have brought more storms as it pasted but the extreme High might have changed things.

We are looking out for 30 inches of snow.

With cold frosts and now gray skys the extra more of a Solar Minimum might well be more snow.

duncan124:

The extra More has turned out to be more warm air from the south bringing the possibility of a SSW splitting the PV even......and more perfect storms.

After so many pairs of storms we should be thankful this new one in the Atlantic is as it is.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/textbook-satellite-presentation-cyclone-north-atlantic-mk/

duncan124:

A new sunspot breaks a 12 day stretch. Bringing 2020s average into the high 60s.

Spaceweather hasn't zeroed the count but has a small note saying the sunspot is from the old cycle, hinting that Spaceweather wants to be less scientific and count down the days to the start of the new cycle.

duncan124:

The PV Beast has quickly rotated across the Atlantic and its inlet reaches south past Morocco!

duncan124:

SWEs video forecast for a possible SSW event in Feb 2020.



No great surprises or science as temperatures of 7,8,12 have not supported a PV before, but will it happen? Does it always do it???

XFixYourBrainX: I recall reading that 2019 was the hottest on record for humanity. Now let’s take into account where we are currently with our average global temperatures. Over the past few million to hundred million years the earth has changed dramatically. At one time there were no ice caps. Then at another time the whole earth was nearly a snow ball mud mash of snow and volcanic ash mixed together about 700 million years ago. This planet will slowly change from one direction to another and back again. The opportunities and conundrums await. Linking a mini ice age to sun cooling is less of a scientific sound discussion and more of a idea.

duncan124:

I agree from experience things seem to be getting milder and so warmer but that might be because I don't live in America or Russia.

Even if things are getting warmer we don't believe in Global Warming anymore. Instead we might be facing a Medieval Warm Period. Medieval because that is how people have been behaving and Warm not just because of the weather but because people want to be together and grow. The fear of a mini Ice Age is real even if the cold may not be so sever as before.

The scientific evidence is there that the Sun is weakening and growing more dim.

That must mean less energy from less sunlight.

That might make the weather more volatile and we might go from long warm summers to long cold summers.

Longer summers but with weaker sunlight seems to weaken plant life and change the landscape. Add some heavy rain and strong winds and thing swill change very quickly.


How long is a Mini Ice Age?? The historic cold Minimums were freezing for a couple or three months but I don't think that will happen again because ,as you say, the Earth has changed that much since then.

The immediate question is what is going to happen if this extra strong Polar Vortex splits and spills cold air this February ??

duncan124:

" Thermosphere Climate Index today: 2.91x1010 W Cold " Spaceweather

The Index has fallen back quickly to below three and " POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS " have been seen again.

What caused the drop? Perhaps it was the elongated PV passing over more water then it had before .Or perhaps it was impacts from space.

Spaceweather recently reported that the dust from space could cool the upper atmosphere a lot.

XFixYourBrainX: Well let’s talk about a few things.

The earth if it does get colder it won’t last long and it won’t be an extinction like event. The sun is slowly expanding and has already burned half its fuel. It will eventually enlarge to engulf even the earth one day turning into a red giant in a few billion years from now. So the sun will get closer to earth and has been for awhile now. Second, the earth is warming up right now not cooling down. But let’s say the earth gets warmer by even 10 more degree over the next 500-1000 years so what? A large volcanic eruption like Yellowstone or tempora volcanos will create a mini ice age causing the ice caps to form much larger than even today bringing temperatures back below what they will be now and in the further. Our planet controls its own temperatures by itself.

duncan124:

SWE looks at the large storms around the world. There seems to be more of them then there should be.

And looks at another perfect storm in the North Atlantic, which is pulling a pool of Arctic air in behind it!

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/exceptional-satellite-presentation-atlantic-cyclone-mk/

Right. What the Sun does in a billion years isn't going to worry me now.

And right , The Earth was is warming. But it was warmer before when civilisation flourished.

It only takes slight changes to make a big difference to us.

Not an extinction event?? I am not so sure.

duncan124:

The rotation of the Polar Vortex seems to have stopped over the Med, or at least its inlet has remained there for a few days.

The result, a change in forecast from Mild, Mild, Mild to Arctic Blasts.

duncan124:

I guess a volatile North Atlantic is behind the volcanic changes in Iceland and don't expect a sky darkening eruption there.

Now that the PV inlet has taken up position over the eastern Med it is reasonable to think the effects would be the same as they were when it was over the Former USA but at a different angle and direction.

At any rate the North Atlantic is sloshing around again and putting pressure on the UK where the predicted arctic blast will occur, while southern Europe will have warmer weather still.

But are we now facing a Medieval Warm Period with more sinister forces who have studied the northern weather well????

duncan124:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/volcano-watch-iceland-yellow-alert-reykjanes-fa/


"Unusually rapid inflation has been detected under Mt. Thorbjorn, Iceland. A yellow alert has been issued ...."SWE

Just a side effect from the movements of the North Atlantic?

duncan124:

Interesting and serious development of the Polar Vortex.

Worth taking a look at 10hPA on Nullschool.

Because; the PV has not split in two but divided in to two after generating a sister vortex on its Pacific side, after leaving the inlet over the Mediterranean for about a week.

This has created a straight line from a new inlet to a new and wide out let over North America.

That means winds are blowing directly from the Former China to the Former USA.

" But are we now facing a Medieval Warm Period with more sinister forces who have studied the northern weather well???? "

I said that before the PV change shape, its not a new thing and is called Deformation, but now you can see the connection to the Sinister as the media has been full of fake news about some new disease from.....China !!

duncan124:

SWEs look at the sudden drop in temperature in the Former USA,-

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/50f-temperature-drop-across-plains-usa-mk/

...and its look at the warmth in Europe...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/27c-nw-italy-extreme-warmth-mk/

SWE forecasts more cold but I doubt that will serious as the trend is for hotter weather so while the temps are lower the weather lacks the characteristics to be bad.

So the Solar Minimum Less is More means more warmth for Europe in Feb 2020.

Doctor_Ontario: I saw Manny, Sid and Scrat the other day. It must be really coming. 🤪

duncan124:

While dodging Congress SO takes a look at the deformed Polar Vortex and its effect on the American weather.

So if you can't see the PV on Nullschool you can see it here. Its about a 1.25 minutes in.

duncan124:

Spaceweather reports another hopeful New Cycle Sunspot in a large splash.

The next cycle is coming and the number of Sunspots will increase but Spaceweathers over enthusiasm for the next cycle must show just how deep the cold was in the Former USA.

It is only called a Solar Minimum and it might be a better part of the Suns cycling activities. In the near future we might refer to it as the Suns summer time

The fact that the Sun has changed even since some organisations had formed a view of the world must be the hard for them to face as it means everything on Earth might change and indeed has already changed.

duncan124:

Clean air from Labrador blows Cycle 24 away.

The cold wind storms from across the Atlantic have blown away the remains of the often still 2019.

Obviously the UK Government didn't like the wind up 'em and reacted to the incoming cleanliness and health !!