Mini Ice Age? (Page 46)

duncan124:
I think the air on balance is set to be perturbed as poets say and as the mechanism for storms is there and working well as soon as there is the smallest factor that starts storms the vast and otherwise undisturbed air fall into the storm making systems when other times they might have been moved elsewhere.

Sir Loin: Obviously a closer examination of the connection between Northern and Southern Hemisphere patterns is called for. Probably starting with ocean currents.

duncan124:
Yet more cyclones from Canada and the Labrador Sea. SWE reports but this "small " one today is hardly worth mentioning.

It is not unusual for the North Atlantic to be a storm for six weeks at a time. So these cyclones are one input which we recognise as storm material.

Interestingly the temperatures seem to be missing and are being found across Europe where it is reported to be as warm as summer and then cold with frosts.

SAT24s video of yesterdays cyclone.



The other storms forecast recently missed the UK and headed for Scandinavia where one was given a name.

duncan124:

Another two header for you Loin.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/spectacular-tandem-tropical-cyclone-gretel-heading-for-new-zealand-mk/

They are both visible today on Nullschool, looking slightly further apart then in SWEs colourful page.

duncan124:

Sunday mornings cyclone.



I think it was the small swirl near Scotland. So these cyclones only reach us as colder slightly stronger winds which you might notice but not as the start of a storm.

Sir Loin: That's a huge area of very cold air to the west of UK, right down to Spain. I couldn't make out cyclogenesis anywhere. Looks like Europe will be freezing its tits off for a day or 2 though. That jetstream cloud to the south of it looks ominous. Right now I'm happy to be in the Pacific

duncan124:

I think it is the Polar Vortex dumping cold air as it wobbles.

First it shrunk and now it reaches down to just north of Florida! I guess it is falling apart and these cold winds are the excess air it has to shed before it goes south.

If the PV was more stable these cyclones might have become storms

duncan124:

SWE reports that there is now a record new ozone hole over the Arctic- Canada and Greenland.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-ozone-hole-arctic-polar-vortex-fa/

So perhaps I was wrong when I said it was the end of this seasons Polar vortex and in fact something else was happening!!

Sir Loin: Looks like a jetstream exit over Spain which was adding to cyclonic circulation so depression may develop.
Get ya winter woollies out if you live there, I know a couple of naturists near Madrid, I'd better warn

duncan124:

SWE is now saying "A very warm period across a large part of Europe this week, locally more than 20°C again. But much colder across the UK, Ireland, and Turkey".

A quick look on Nullschool indeed reveals a kink in the Jet stream but at a lower altitude then I would have expected. Its inline with the English Channel,but there is a small cyclone over southern Spain near Portugal
.
I think something unexpected happened when one of the storms missed the UK and became a named storm over Norway.

The atmosphere is still shrinking as it freezes at the top. It is the cold and the sunlight that caused the Ozone hole.

But also, the calm is vertical as well ! Less weather also means the air at the top is less disturbed and carries on the same for longer.

Still it looks like the start of another hot year.

Sir Loin: Duncan, consider this about the ozone hole: O3 is created by Ir radiation splitting O2 molecules then the O radical drifts around till it bumps into an O2 which it bonds with to give O3... With me?
OK, so that's how we get an ozone layer in the stratosphere except the Arctic is just finishing winter when it gets 24/7 darkness... No sunlight.... no Ir creating O3.
Ozone holes over the poles at the beginning of spring are natural; certainly they're enhanced by human pollution with CFCs etc, but otherwise natural. Don't sweat it Mate but it is important to wear sunblock outside early in the season.

duncan124:

Thanks Loin. I was n,t worried just thought it was interesting to have a Ozone hole in the north, and that it was disturbing the weather pattern there.

However in Canada a Ozone Hole is a problem as it may increase pollution from dirt in the air.

A page back at the start of the week I thought I could see the end of the Polar Vortex .

I had began to doubt it would break up soon but is has now shrunk with its centre at the north end of Baffin island and spread south to cover most of North America, with a large inlet over the Pacific.

The cold air across most of Europe is air it has dropped and once that has moved on the warm air will end this Polar vortex I think. So maybe next week.

duncan124:

Yet another cyclone storm is forming in the North Atlantic near Canada as the polar vortex is wreaking and creating another side vortex over the North Atlantic also.

Indeed it is fairly windy on here the East side tonight with the wind blowing down the North Sea.

But this is weather we have seen before, could predict in the future and is a reminder of what winters were like before.

So is the Grand solar Minimum,which we could expect to be like this for the next decade, going to bring much change to the winter months???

duncan124:

The Polar Vortex has split into three vortexes as a result not of its early decline but because of the Ozone Hole and the weather that coursed that.

And happened because the upper atmosphere was colder at the start of Spring due to the Solar Minimum

Is another idea.

Sir Loin: Don't think so. Ozone depletion and climate change are two separate issues

duncan124:

The Ozone hole in the north is the result of sunlight on cold air.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-ozone-hole-arctic-polar-vortex-fa/

"As we mentioned, ozone destruction also needs sunlight, which is why this process is limited over the north pole. By late February and March when sunlight reaches the pole, the stratosphere over the north pole is usually not cold enough anymore to produce these clouds, which are essential for the ozone destruction process. In some years, like this year, the stratosphere is abnormally cold, and it can produce the stratospheric clouds at the same time that sunlight reaches the pole, starting ozone destruction."SWE

Sir Loin: I would think the ozone hole over the Arctic is caused by the same process as the hole over Antarctica. Try Googling a report by Tom Clarkson & Sylvia Nichol back in about 1997 Perhaps Edith Farkas was involved too, my memory is a little faded.

duncan124:

The pollution effects the clouds not the Ozone directly but the north is not cold enough anyway so the destruction process doesn't often happen.

I can remember several other times when Wireclubbers have spotted Ozone Holes in the north.So its not a rare event.

But on the other hand the sunlight and clean air has reached the ground and this March is warm in the sunlight and with only a sometimes a chill breeze.

In fact good for your health.

duncan124:

The Baffin Island effect returns to the Polar Vortex as it takes on a rectangular shape at 70 hPa. Also called a strange symmetrical shape..

Think of the odd table mountain on the island and the other square rocks there , not to mention the immense cold that reaches down to sea level there.

With one side vortex of the PV over the North Atlantic it is no surprise that extreme weather develops and stays there;-

"A very strong upper ridge develops a monster high-pressure system over the North Atlantic – near 1055 mbar in its center on Sunday " SWE

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/monster-high-pressure-system-north-atlantic-mk/

It is now cold on the east side as the wind blows down the North Sea but in the week it was also hot and sunny. Surely the Politicians have watched and waited hoping for this seasonal weather to help their schemes.

If cycle 26 brings more weather it will be warmer, even a MWP, so the Politicians behaviour might become even worse,

kittybobo34: Seems to break a new Global average warmth record every year.

duncan124:

The northern Polar Vortex is in tatters and falling south. So I was a little premature when I said sixteen days ago it would be over by the end of the week.

But the breakdown was slower perhaps because there was not enough hot winds to pull the PV down and indeed now the quiet of the Solar Minimum remains. Even the big storms aren't moving.

So now we will have eleven years of Cycle 25 with the Sun at its nadir of energy, expecting that it will pick up afterwards, but is it cold enough where it has gotten cold to be an Ice Age there????

duncan124:

The hot air has arrived on the ground in Europe and Easter may be a exceptionally warm this year.

How the hot and cold winds arrange themselves controls the end of the Polar Vortex.

With the upper atmosphere still colder the heat stayed lower and the PV lasted longer?

Maybe its a religious point but the Beast from the East has brought a warm and sunny festival.

duncan124:

An Arctic blast for the Former US. SWE is predicting another cold spell as the weather takes on a familiar pattern on the north west coast.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/arctic-outbreak-spreads-across-unites-states-mk/

I wonder what the US citizens would have said as the US suffers frosts and Europe has a warm and sunny Easter albeit without the Freedom of Religion or Association?

kittybobo34: The average US citizen would raise his fist and rail against all those windmills blowing air the wrong way...