Why is the climate changing. (Page 141)

ghostgeek: It certainly is when there are kamikaze cyclists on the footpath.

zeffur: One nicely placed stick flips a bicycle & kamikaze quickly.

ghostgeek: Here, in the UK, we're not supposed to do things like that.

zeffur: I imagine they aren't supposed to terrorize hikers either...but, apparently nothing stops them from continuing to do it...

ghostgeek: Only bubbly little bugs like hikers.

ghostgeek: Manufacturing electric vehicles generates 63 per cent more carbon dioxide than making petrol or diesel models, damning research has found.

It means some zero-emission vehicles have to be driven for almost 50,000 miles before they are as 'green' as cars powered by fossil fuels.

[ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8991877/Electric-cars-shock-Manufacturing-green-vehicles-churns-CO2-making-fuel-models.html ]

kittybobo34: Statistics can be twisted to say what you want to say,, the batteries for cars do save some greenhouse gases, however the lithium for the batteries is in short supply.

kittybobo34: for instance that stat you mentioned is just about making the motor, not what the motor uses. I bet they are also assuming that the electric is charged by an oil based power plant.

zeffur: Did you know that Tesla batteries self discharge between 1 to 2% per day??
That's never shown in their efficiency rating--but, it is lost energy & $.

Also, in cold climates, much of the battery energy goes towards heating the cabin & keeping the battery pack at a certain temperature to ensure it can be charged properly. This can amount to 41% of the battery capacity or higher.

So, if we factored in all of those energy losses towards the actual drivable miles then electric cars aren't a great option in cold climates.

ghostgeek: Keeping your car cool might be a priority in hot weather, but remember it is draining your battery fast. Run the air conditioning at a reasonable temperature if you cannot settle for the fan and have limited charging options. ...

There are few things that spell “summer” quite like playing your favorite music on the stereo with the windows down. However, fun as it may be, this way of driving will affect your EV battery’s state of charge (SoC). In a gas-powered car, the engine propels the vehicle, but in a plug-in model, the battery supplies the power for the motor, stereo and every other function that requires energy. ...

High temperatures will force an EV’s thermal management system to kick in, which itself depletes the battery while preserving charge. Even though the first Nissan Leaf and other, older plug-ins are the worst at dealing with extreme temperatures, it remains a factor with any electric model.

As with other examples we cite here, the key is stress on the vehicle. Whenever possible, park in a garage to avoid exposing the car to high heats. When that is impossible, look for a spot in the shade. ...

Driving over 50 miles per hour feels light and easy in an electric car, but high speeds drain the battery at much faster rates than low speeds. While it won’t matter much in a Tesla, it will for other EVs. A glance at the difference between city and highway fuel economy suggests how much it can impact a car’s range. Most EVs get 20-28 MPGe more in city driving as compared to highway driving.

[ https://www.fleetcarma.com/maximize-electric-vehicle-range-summer-hot-weather/ ]

Er ... does anyone know what the big selling point is for an electric car, other than that governments seem to be in favour of them?

zeffur: They are priced right to make some people LOTS of $$$. lol

This will be an interesting experiment:

"The UK will ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, 10 years earlier than planned, under prime minister Boris Johnson's push for more ambitious action on climate change. The move was lauded as a “landmark” by Greenpeace and “undoubtedly challenging” by the CBI business group."

src: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2260042-uk-10-point-climate-plan-bans-new-petrol-and-diesel-car-sales-by-2030/

I'll bet the total cost of ownership will be staggering to people in those countries---expecially when their batteries reach their end of life...

If they don't tax petrol & diesel out of sight then I'd bet those cars will retain a lot of their value...

I also wonder how much electricity prices are going to increase due to the need to massively upgrade the power systems throughout the UK--which will mean higher electricity prices undoubtedly.

If I lived in the UK, I'd buy the most fuel efficient vehicle that I could buy right before they legally ban the sale of such vehicles. It will take years before the electric vehicles become affordable for most working people & the people who can't afford one (which will be many more people when the ban occurs) will be stuck paying higher prices for public transporation....

Let's do a little math for the electrical demand for only London England:
Eventually they want all cars to be electric, so I'll do the calculations for that:

Cars: 2.56 million
Average Usage/Car: 9k miles/Yr
Energy Reqd/Car: 2.273 MWh/Yr (assume 1% self-discharge/day & 4 mi/kWh driven. It doesn't include any mileage loss for running the heater or any other electrical device that lowers driving miles & cost more $ for energy)
TL Energy Reqd: 5.818 TWh/Yr (for all the electric cars in London)
TL New Generation Reqd: 664.1 MW (new capacity that will have to be created). Note: That doesn't even include the electricity that will be needed for the public transportation system.

So where are they going to get the new power from--surely not burning fossil fuels as that would defeat the purpose of banning the vehicles that used fossil fuels, wouldn't it?? I doubt they have enough renewable (solar, wind, & geothermal) capacity to provide that much new power supply--so, it will likely need to be provided by nuclear power.

Nuclear power costs from $6 billion $9 billion for each 1,100 MW plant. Let's split the difference & say it costs those 2.56 million drivers 6.5 billion over 30 yrs plus 10% profit per year--so, it would cost each driver ~123.07 $/month just for the extra power plant & they would of course also have to pay for the electricity to run their cars--which would be 23.21 $/month (at the current power rates of .1226 $/kWh) for a total of 146.28 $/month. Notes: Divide all $ by 1.33 to convert to Pounds. Idk how much extra they might charge for the nuclear fuel rods, so I haven't included that cost into the above calculations. Also remember, all of that is just for London car owners. Also, don't forget electric cars are expensive. A 4% loan for 5 yrs on a 40k$ Tesla will cost 737.00 $/month--not including insurance & maintenance.

And what will they do with:
1. All the new nuclear waste that will be generated?
2. 2.56+ million useless li-ion batteries by 2040?

ghostgeek: The UK government is going to power everything with dreams.

kittybobo34: And, yet France generates nuclear powered electricity cheaper than Britains coal plants can. They have an organized system for dealing with the waste too.
I understand that electric cars are actually cheaper to build than gasoline versions because of the lack of engine and transmission. It's just a matter of getting production costs down.

MJ59: Damn climate's changing to Summer here again dammit!!

kittybobo34: Please just keep summer down there, after this last years mob of hurricanes, we don't want it back.

ghostgeek: Even with falling battery costs, electric cars will remain "significantly more expensive" for European automakers to build than internal-combustion models for at least a decade, according to a Financial Times study.

While the total manufacturing cost of a compact electric car will fall by more than a fifth by 2030, to 16,000 euros ($19,000), that will still be 9% higher than comparable gasoline or diesel cars, according to data compiled by consultancy Oliver Wyman for the Financial Times. ...

[ https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1129461_evs-cost-more-to-build-even-after-batteries-get-cheaper ]

zeffur: re: "The 2020 Mini Cooper SE is not only the cheapest electric car on sale in the U.S. right now, it's also one of the better-looking electric cars in the $30,000-$40,000 price range."

It only has a 32.6 kWh battery with a range of 110 miles. Forget about traveling cross-country without lots of stress about available electric charging locations.
src: https://www.automobilemag.com/news/cheapest-electric-car-on-sale-now/

ghostgeek: Politicians love electric cars, but are they the future:

A handful of mechanically-inclined tinkerers and entrepreneurs have set out to build more efficient steam engines. Some, like the British Steam Car Team, seem to be in it for the challenge and fun. Then there's Harry Schoell, whose company, Cyclone Power Technologies, has produced a steam-driven automotive engine that might actually convince consumers to give water vapor power a try. While the steam engines of the past have been large and unwieldy, Schoell's engines would fit easily into the footprint of a standard internal combustion engine.

So what's different? Schoell's design is built on a closed-loop system of heating and cooling, which makes the engine much more efficient and produces less waste than previous models. The steam gets so hot that it behaves more like a liquid, which yields more power. It's also less expensive to produce and maintain because it doesn't need a catalytic converter, muffler, oil or a transmission like an internal combustion engine. But best of all, in this era of fossil fuel anxiety, you can use any fuel you like to kick-start the steam process, whether that's gasoline from petroleum or biofuel.

[ https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/steam-powered-car.htm ]

zeffur: Let's also not forget that charging a li-ion battery takes a long time (sometimes over night if you do a whole normal charge). Sure there are fast DC chargers that some vehicles are equipt with that can bulk charge a battery up to 80%, but, frankly, I think people will find such charging degrades the battery faster over time.

Modern Charging Methods:
---------------------------------------
VAC A kW Mi/MC Mi/HC
120 15 1.8 0.08 5
240 15.4 3.7 0.2 12
240 27.5 6.6 0.42 25
240 40 9.6 0.53 31.8

VDC A kW Mi/MC Mi/HC
240 100 24 1.67 100
600 83.3 50 3.33 200

VAC = Volts Alternating Current
VDC = Volts Direct Current
A = Amps
kW = kiloWatts of power
Mi/MC = Miles per minute of charge
Mi/HC = Miles per hour of charge

Note: An 82 kWh Tesla Model 3 battery would take ~10.3 hrs to fully charge on a standard US 240VAC, 40A circuit (i.e. Tesla Model 3 range = 328 miles / 31.8 miles/hr charging = ~10.3 hours).

Imagine taking a cross-country trip...you'd drive for 4 hours & it would take you over 10+ hrs to recharge (at normal charging speed) your battery for the next 4 hours of drive time. It's definitely not equivalent to adding another 10 gallons of fuel into your vehicle in 10 minutes & then continuing on your journey.

ghostgeek: Electric seems to be a quite impractical technology.

ghostgeek: Just what you'd expect politicians to advocate.

kittybobo34: it was impractical, but with the recent battery changes, and the new bio approach to stripping hydrogen out of biomass, it could be really big.

zeffur: Idk.. I think the answer will involve a liquid fuel of some kind via chemistry.
Compressed gasses aren't practical long term & batteries have lots of limitations that make them impractical in very cold & very hot climates.

zeffur: Another 'just so' theory to ?answer? another big question??

"Determining where Earth was tens of millions of years ago is a surprisingly thorny problem, because the sun and its planets form a chaotic system, in which minuscule orbital changes can, over time, magnify into enormous effects. Astronomers’ best models of planetary motions cannot go further back in time than about 50 million years. Geologists can help by seeking clues about Earth’s paleoclimate in ancient seafloor sediments and using those data to extrapolate information about the planet’s past position, relative to the sun. In the new study, published in Science, Richard Zeebe, a paleoceanographer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, and Lucas Lourens, a geoscientist at Utrecht University in the Netherlands, combined astronomical and geologic data to push our detailed knowledge of Earth’s position back another eight million years, linking the PETM’s onset with a larger cycle of orbital change."
src: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earths-orbital-shifts-may-have-triggered-ancient-global-warming/

kittybobo34: This is where computers really help out, they can back everything up.. that was how they figured out that our planet was hit by a smaller planet, which created the moon. Every scenario was a fail until they came up with that one. At this point it's the only theory that works in the computer simulations.