A_Muse_Mint101 Offline

41 Single Male from Lake Jackson       265
         
A_Muse_Mint101
A_Muse_Mint101: A lot to read, but worth it. I also recognize the issue with the OP's personal life, but the math is not in question.

Here's the problem with just 1% along with the problem of large number appreciation.

Also, I'd like to add a satirical context--

"I see people wearing winter coats and hats. What a bunch of sheeple. I did my own research and found that only 1500 people die from hypothermia each year in the US. That's only 0.0005% of the population. They live in fear of something that 99.9995% of people won't die from. Even worse, many of those who died from hypothermia were wearing coats and hats. Coats don't work!"

This is the level of uninformed and/or willfully ignorant we have to put up with, today. Don't choose stupid, smarty.

"How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

Franklin Veaux

[Edit Nov 10, 2020: See new information at the end]

There are two problems with this question.

It neglects the law of large numbers; and

It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:

19 more require hospitalization.

18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.

10 will have permanent lung damage.

3 will have strokes.

2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.

2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:

3,282,000 people dead.

62,358,000 hospitalized.

59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.

32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.

9,846,000 people with strokes.

6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.

6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.

The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

---

Original post: ALL SOURCES ARE FOUND WITHIN THE ORIGINAL POST! https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux

Edited to add

This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.)

The statistics I used in this answer were compiled from a number of different sources. I spent quite a bit of time writing the answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have my search history in front of me, so I’ll attempt to re-compile them.

Some of the sources include:

Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1

Another from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

“Some of the data that we’re getting now from the China studies, one study that was just in JAMA Neurology showed that 36.4 percent of patients had neurologic issues,” said , neurosurgeon at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield, Illinois. “One of the that came out at the end of February discussed the possibility of virus traveling into the olfactory neurons, through the olfactory bulb, and into the brain.”

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-know-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19#COVID-19-might-affect-the-brain-stem

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2764549

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25728

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/lifelong-lung-damage-the-serious-covid-19-complication-that-can-hit-people-in-their-20s#Whos-at-risk

“Holes in the lung likely refers to an entity that has been dubbed ‘post-COVID fibrosis,’ otherwise known as post-ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] fibrosis,” said , transplant pulmonologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center.

ARDS occurs when fluid builds up in tiny air sacs in the lungs called alveoli. This reduces oxygen in the bloodstream and deprives the organs of oxygen which can lead to organ failure.

Post-COVID fibrosis, according to Shah, is defined as lung damage that’s irreversible and can result in severe functional limitations from patients, such as cough, shortness of breath, and need for oxygen. […]

According to The Lancet, in a piece titled, “Pulmonary fibrosis secondary to COVID-19: a call to arms?,” the first series of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China showed that 26 percent required intensive care and 61 percent of that subset developed ARDS. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30222-8/fulltext

For instance, physicians are seeing an uptick in strokes among young patients with Covid-19.

The blood clots also can travel to other organs, leading to ongoing health problems. For instance, pulmonary embolisms, which occur when the clots block circulation to the lungs, can cause ongoing "functional limitations," like fatigue, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and discomfort when performing physical activity, Parshley reports. Similarly, blood clots in the kidneys can cause renal failure, which can cause life-long complications.

Heart damage

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

The numbers in this answer were made from extrapolations about percentages of COVID-19 long-term effects reported in a range of studies on Google Scholar, assuming a hypothetical 100% US infection rate and a 1% fatality rate. Of course, in reality, a high infection rate would cause the mortality and comorbidity rates to skyrocket, so if anything, these numbers are conservative.

Wear your damn masks, people.

More information

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/what-are-the-long-term-health-risks-post-covid-19

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-us/3000168/complications

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300901

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02598-6

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30287-X/fulltext
3 years ago ReplyReport Link Collapse Show Comments (5)
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brighti
brighti: Masks won't do much for a population control virus, but it's good to see you've got the facts.
3 years ago ReplyReport
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A_Muse_Mint101
A_Muse_Mint101: Good and proper hygiene + social distancing + proper mask use = minimization of transmission within reason.

None of these alone are the answer, but combined with sufficient cooperation we can reduce the harmful effects of overwhelming our healthcare systems to manage the problem and reduce infections and deaths.
3 years ago ReplyReport
2
Mew_
Mew_: And here I thought I was scared before. ..
But it's really good to know the facts.
3 years ago ReplyReport
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brighti
brighti in reply to A_Muse_Mint101: I don't know Musey. You know how I feel considering the arguments about the virus we had last year, when everyone thought it wasn't really that big of a deal haha. People never cared about Actual Prevention or they would've dropped last year when people like me were crying about COVID. Too late now. Super super super bug.
3 years ago ReplyReport
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A_Muse_Mint101
A_Muse_Mint101: I initially thought people, the general public, were going to do the right thing and take adequate precautions. Not going to make that mistake again. I still see people around my city doing the wrong things. I'm very disappointed in USA by and large.
3 years ago ReplyReport
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